四川丘陵地区农业投入要素与农业经济增长的实证分析——以泸县为例

摘要

以四川省典型丘陵农业大县——泸县为例,根据1980 ～2009年的数据资料,在对数据进行检验的基础上,运用OLS方法拟合了一个多元线性模型,格兰杰因果检验分析农业经济增长与农业投入各要素之间的关系.结果表明,长期内,泸县劳动力投入对农业经济增长不存在因果关系;长期内,泸县土地投入对农业经济增长有反向影响;不管长期还是短期,化肥、机械及资金的投入对于泸县的经济增长有促进作用.%Luxian County, which is a large agricultural county in hilly regions of Sichuan Province, was taken as an example, some tests were made on the data of Luxian from 1980 to 2009, and then a multivariate linear model was established by ordinary least square to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural input factors by the Granger causality test. The results showed that there was no direct causality between labor input and agricultural economic growth in Luxian County in a long run, while land input produced a negative impact on agricultural economic growth; the fertilized, machineries and capital input all could promote the economic growth in both a long run and a short term.