武汉市空气质量与气象条件的关系及气象预报方法研究

摘要

利用2013～2014年武汉市空气质量指数和气象要素因子，分析了武汉市环境空气质量分布特征以及气象要素因子对空气质量的影响。结果表明，武汉市空气质量严重污染天气占全年的4％；近10年（2005～2014年）武汉市PM10、SO2污染物浓度逐年下降，首要污染物以细颗粒物为主。武汉市空气质量变化与气温、低云量、平均风速、降水量等气象因子相关性最好，均呈明显的负相关性。利用数理统计方法，选用与空气质量指数相关性较好的气象因子制作逐日空气质量指数多元回归预测方程，可结合气象预报产品及时制作空气质量预报。%Air quality index and meteorological factors in Wuhan City in 2013-2014 were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of environmental air quality in Wuhan City, as well as the effects of meteorological factors on air quality and meteorological factors.Result showed that the number of seriously polluted days in Wuhan was 4% of a year.In recent 10 years (2005-2014), the concentration of PM10 and SO2 pollutants in Wuhan City decreased year by year.The main pollutant was fine particulate.Changes in air quality in Wuhan City had the optimal correlation with temperature, low cloud cover, average wind speed, precipitation and other meteorological factors, showing a sig-nificant negative correlation.Mathematical statistics method was adopted.Meteorological factors having relatively good correlation with air quality index were selected to establish the daily AQI multiple regression prediction equation.Air quality forecast was carried out by using me-teorological forecast products.