基于参数灵敏度分析的地下水数值模拟研究--以黑龙江桦南县为例

摘要

The orthogonal experimental method was used to do the parameter sensitivity analysis of groundwater numerical simulation in Hua-nan County of Heilongjiang Province.6 parameters including feed coefficient of precipitation infiltration, permeability coefficient, water supply degree, vertical permeability coefficient of weak permeable layer, permeability coefficient of confined water, elastic storativity, were consid-ered to do sensitivity analysis according to the hydrogeological conditions, and 5 level values of each parameter were selected.The results showed that the permeability coefficient of unconfined aquifer has the greatest impact to the water level calculated by the numerical simulation model.It is necessary to find out the hydrogeological parameters especially the permeability coefficient of unconfined aquifer when doing water resource evaluation by use of Visual MODFlow.%采用正交试验法对地下水流数值模拟中的参数灵敏度进行分析，以黑龙江省桦南县为例，根据研究区实际的水文地质条件选取了潜水的降水入渗补给系数、渗透系数、给水度、弱透水层的垂向渗透系数以及承压水的渗透系数和弹性释水系数6个参数进行研究，每个参数选取5个水平值。结果表明：潜水含水层的渗透系数对模型计算水位的影响最大，因此在利用Visual MODFlow做水资源评价前查明研究区的水文地质参数特别是潜水的渗透系数对于正确建立模型十分必要。