基于三角模型的甘肃省资源环境承载力动态评价

摘要

Objective] The aim was to evaluate resources and environment carrying capacity in Gansu Province based on the triangle model. [ Method] The evaluation index system of Gansu resources and environment carrying capacity was conceived from the aspects of resources contain and environmental capacity, coordinate extent of economical development and stable degree of social security, this study put forward evaluation for resources and environment carrying capacity by taking 10 observe years during 2004 to 2013 of Gansu based on the triangle model.[Result] The results showed that:during 10 years, Gansu resources and environment carrying capacity experienced four phases, as weak capacity, inferior capacity, moderate capacity and strong capacity, it also showed an appropriate tendency.In general, it presented increase trend, resources con-tain and environment carring capacity and the non economic development coordination index tended to be of high quality , negative loading of non social security stability index still exist.[Conclusion] Triangle model is proper method for evaluating resources and environment carrying capaci-ty.%[目的]运用三角模型对甘肃省资源环境承载力进行动态评价。[方法]从资源禀赋和环境容量、经济发展协调度及社会安全稳定度3个方面构建甘肃省资源环境承载力评价指标体系，借助三角模型，对2004～2013年甘肃省资源环境承载力进行动态评价。[结果]2004～2013年甘肃省资源环境承载力经历了弱、较弱、中等和较强承载4个状态阶段，承载水平呈良性发展态势。承载水平具有向强承载力方向变动的可能。资源禀赋和环境容量指数和非经济发展协调度指数趋向于优质水平，非社会安全稳定度指数对资源环境承载力的负面载荷仍然存在。[结论]三角模型是开展资源环境承载力评价较为理想的方法。