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分宜城镇气象要素订正化预报方法研究

     

摘要

利用2013-2014年的分宜地面气象观测站观测资料和区域自动站加密观测资料,采用温差订正法,分析县城与各乡镇气象要素(逐日最高气温、最低气温)之间的差异.结果表明,随着季节的变化,县观测站点与各乡镇观测站点之间的最高、最低温度具有明显差异.在此基础上,以预报员主观制作的县站最高、最低气温预报结果作为基础,利用分析结果对上级指导预报进行订正,极大地提高乡镇气象要素的预报准确率.%Using the observational data of the sub-meteorological observation station and the regional automatic station from 2013 to 2014,the difference between the county and the township meteorological factors (daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature) was analyzed by temperature difference correction method.The results showed that there was a significant difference in the maximum temperature and minimum temperature between the county observation sites and the township observation sites with the seasons change.On the basis of this,based on the results of the highest and lowest temperature forecast of the county station by forecaster subjective production,the results of the analysis were used to revise the guidance forecast of the superior,which could greatly improve the forecast accuracy of meteorological elements of township.

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