China agricultural outlook for 2015-2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System （CAMES）

摘要

The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientific work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as well as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System （CAMES） on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamically project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The following conclusions are drawn： i） The production of major agricultural products will continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield, ii） The growth of agricultural consumption will be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufficiency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. iii） Agricultural trade will continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im- ports will slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.