Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Yingkou in 2016, and to predict the trend of the incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in 2015, to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control measures.Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the epidemic situa-tion of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Yingkou city in 2015 and the rate of rat poison.Results 64 cases of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Yingkou city in 2015, incidence rate 2.74/10万,Peak incidence for March and May, accounted for 42.31 of the total number of cases;spring rat density was 2.11, the rate of rat poison was5.88;autumn rat density was 2.02, the rate of rat poison was3.77; correlation coefficient between the incidence rate and the density of rats was 0.989,P was 0.000, the positive correlation between the incidence rate and the density of rats was suggested.Incidence rate and the correlation coefficient between the incidence rate and the toxicity rate was 0.047,p was 0.449( >0.05), correlation coefficient between rat density and the rate of rat poison was 0.071,p was 0.423(>0.05), It is still not con-sidered that the incidence rate is related to the incidence of rat poison, and the density of rats is linear with the toxicity of the rat.Conclusions The incidence rate of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Yingkou is closely related to the density of rats, because in recent years, there is no big difference in the density of rats, prediction of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in 2016 will continue to maintain the average level of 2012-2015.%目的：分析2015年营口地区流行性出血热的流行病学特征，并对2016年流行性出血热发病趋势进行预测，为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学分析方法对2015年营口市流行性出血热疫情以及鼠密度和鼠带毒率进行分析。结果营口市2015年流行性出血热发病64例，发病率为2.74／10万，发病高峰为3月份和5月份，均占发病总数的42.31％；春季鼠密度为2.11％，鼠带毒率为5.88％；秋季鼠密度2.02％，鼠带毒率为3.77％。发病率与鼠密度间的相关系数0.989，P值为0.000，提示发病率与鼠密度呈正相关关系。而发病率与鼠带毒率间的相关系数0.047，P值为0.449（＞0.05），鼠密度与鼠带毒率间的相关系数0.071，P值为0.423（＞0.05），尚不能认为发病率与鼠带毒、鼠密度与鼠带毒存在线性关系。结论营口地区流行性出血热发病率与鼠密度密切相关，由于近年来鼠密度监测无太大差异，预测2016年流行性出血热发病仍将维持2012－2015年平均水平。
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