水库径流丰枯遭遇特性分析

摘要

Dimensional joint distribution function is constructed by using Copula theory ,which is used to anal-ysis synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of wet-dry reservoir runoff between Biliuhe reservoir and Yingnahe reservoir in three time periods of annual ,flood season and non-flood season.The result show that the synchronous encounter probability of wet-dry runoff with these two reservoirs from high to low is flood season , annual and non-flood season.According to the analysis ,the synchronous encounter probability of wet-dry runoff is large,Runoff compensation characteristics between Biliuhe reservoir and Yingnahe reservoir is not very clear.%文中运用Copula理论构建了碧流河水库、英那河水库全年、汛期、非汛期天然入库径流二维联合分布函数，分析了两座水库三个时间尺度的径流丰枯遭遇特性，结果表明，两库汛期径流丰枯同步频率最大，全年次之，非汛期最小。三个尺度整体上看，两水库天然入库径流丰枯同步频率较高，丰枯补偿特征不十分明显。