基于混沌的小凌河流域月降水时间序列分析

摘要

Xiaolinghe Basin is one of the larger rivers in the western region of Liaoning Province ,in recent years,reducing rainfall in the basin is an important factor affecting the development and utilization of water resources.In this paper,taking monthly precipitation time series in a typical station Jinshui Hydrological staion of Xiaolinghe Basin from 1951 to 2012 as an example ,using CC method of chaos theory to determine the delay interval time series,reconstructed embedding phase space,and using GP algorithm to calculate the correlation dimension of the sequence;the results show that the time series of monthly precipitation in Xiaolinghe basin has obvious characteristics of chaos,which is verified by principal component analysis and establish a founda-tion for further monthly precipitation forecasting model.%小凌河流域是辽宁省西部地区较大的河流之一，近年来降水量的减少是影响该流域水资源开发利用的重要因素。本文以小凌河流域的典型测站-锦州水文站1951-2012年的月降水时间序列为例，采用混沌理论中的C-C法确定时间序列的延迟时间间隔，重构嵌入相空间，并利用G-P算法计算该序列的关联维数，结果表明，小凌河流域月降水时间序列存在明显的混沌特性。同时，采用主分量分析法予以验证。从而为进一步建立月降水预测模型奠定了基础。