梯级水库的联合防洪调度及防洪风险分析

摘要

In China Reservoir dams,about 90% of are earth dam,a considerable dams are Cascade Reservoir dam;When reservoir encounter the unexpected events such as super-standard flood,earthquakes,geological disasters caused the collapse of the dam;leakage,piping and other construction accidents,war or terrorist inci-dents caused dam failure;a huge flood storage capacity will instantly pouring downstream ,causing severe floods,the people’s life and property security and socio-economic development poses a serious threat and de-struction.Due to a cascade of reservoirs built on the same river ,when it encountered dangerous dam upstream dams,downstream of dam break caused a chain reaction,caused such a huge disaster.So the study of cascade reservoir flood control operation measures ,and its flood risk analysis to find the optimal scheduling scheme ,the maximum possible to reduce or even avoid the risk of dam ,which ensure local people ’s lives and property safety and social economy development continued has of great significance.%由于我国兴建的水库大坝约90%为土坝，有相当部分为梯级水库，当水库遭遇突发事件如超标准洪水、地震、地质灾害问题造成的坝体坍塌、大坝渗漏发生管涌等工程事故、战争或恐怖事件等因素导致溃坝，将使蓄量巨大的洪水瞬间向下游倾泻，引发严重的洪涝灾害，对人民生命财产安全和社会经济发展造成严重威胁和破坏。由于梯级水库建于同一条河道上，当上游水库大坝突遇险情溃坝时，会引起下游水库溃坝的连锁反应，这样造成的灾害特别巨大。因此研究梯级水库联合防洪调度措施，并对其进行防洪风险分析，寻找最优的调度方式，最大可能降低甚至避免大坝溃坝风险，这对保证当地人民群众的生命财产安全和社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的意义。