青海共和地区近50年霜冻的气候变化特征分析

摘要

Using the ground meteoro-logical observation data during 1961-2010 years in Hainan Statem eteorologi-cal observatory of Qinghai Province, and using clim atic statistical methods, the characteristicsoffrostseason clim ate and its changes were analyzed ,for a comprehensive analysis of frost clim ate change in the last 50 years in Gonghe area of Qinghai Province and providing the scientific basis of agricultural pro-duction and rational utilization of cli-mate resources in the area. The results showed that last frost date in almost 50 years was significantly ahead of trends, at arate of 4.5 devery 10 years in ad-vance, and 23 dahead of last frost date in 50 years.The first frost date waspost-poned trends, at a rate of 7.1 devery 10 years later, and first frost date pushed back 35 d in 50 years. The beginning (end ) ahead of frost (postponed) had a probability of 42%(52% ). Description of the last frost dam age was greater than the firstfrost.Firstand lastfrostdate and the length of the frost-free period ap-peared closely related to the temperature. As tem peratures rise, gradually early frost delay,and last frost date in advance gradually ,and the frost-free period ex-tended. In terms of the impact, maxi-mum tem perature and minimum tem per-atures affected more than the average temperature. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature were positive as-sociated with the mean temperature and the first frost days and frost-free season,and the last frost date was negative, and showed a very good relationship on the interannualscales.%为了全面分析共和地区近50年霜冻的气候变化特征，为该地区合理利用气候资源及农业生产提供科学依据，利用青海省海南州气象台1961—2010年地面气象观测资料，采用气候统计方法，对共和地区霜期气候特征及其变化进行了分析。结果表明，近50年来共和地区终霜日呈显著提前趋势，以每10年4.5 d的速度提前，50年来终霜日提前了23 d；初霜日呈显著推后趋势，以每10年7.1 d的速度推后，50年来初霜日推后了35 d；无霜期呈显著延长趋势，以每10年11.9 d的速度延长，50年来延长了60 d。共和地区初（终）霜提前（推迟）的概率为42%（52%），说明共和地区终霜的危害大于初霜。温度对初、终霜日的出现及无霜期的长短有较大影响。随着温度的显著增加，导致初（终）霜日逐渐推迟（提前）以及无霜期的延长；最低气温对初、终霜日及无霜期的影响大于平均气温和最高气温。共和地区初霜日和无霜期与最高气温、最低气温、平均气温呈极显著正相关，而终霜日则呈极显著负相关，且在年际尺度上呈现出很好的对应关系。