通辽市近60年气温变化特征及对农业生产的影响

摘要

Using the data of monthly average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature of seven meteorological observatories in Tongliao during the year of 1955-2014,which were systematically analyzed used linear tendency, accumulated anomaly curve, moving average and Mann-Kendall methods. The results showed that there was a significant increasing trend in average temperature of Tongliao about 60 years , and the temperature range improved remarkably in 1990s, and annual variations of temperature is obvious was the 21st century. There were obvious rising trend in maximum temperature, but no minimum temperature. Rising temperatures caused frequent extreme weather, and in order to adapt to the changes of production conditions, agricultural costs of Tongliao increased dramatically.%应用1955—2014年通辽市7个气象观测站逐月平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料，采用线性倾向法、F检验、累积距平曲线、5 a滑动平均和Mann-Kendall法分析其变化特征。结果表明：近60 a通辽市平均气温呈显著上升趋势，20世纪90年代开始增温幅度明显加强，21世纪气温年际变化差异明显。最高气温变化趋势不显著，而最低气温呈明显上升趋势。气温升高导致通辽市极端天气事件频发，为适应生产条件的变化，农业成本大幅增加。