IP内通系统故障预测方法研究与应用

摘要

IP通信系统是指挥所用于通信的主要手段,对部队指挥顺畅至关重要.目前主要排除故障手段是设备不能正常工作之后发现并处理.为此提出一种提前预测故障的方法,即监控输出信号实际值与理论值的差值,由于理论值一般是一个范围,因此改为利用AR模型替换输出的实际值与预测值进行比较,如超出预测值较多则认为设备有隐患.从实际仿真来看,使用AR模型的方法要好于第一种方法.%IP communication system is the main communication method for the command,which is very important to the command of the army.Currently,it can be repaired only after the system can not work normally.In this paper,a method of forecasting failure is proposed,which monitors the differential value of the actual value and the theory value.Then it replaces the actual value with the AR model.According to the simulation results,AR model is better in use.