In taking the advantages of energy saving and environment protection, electric vehicles have being rapidly developed in the market. Their long term diffusion on the competitive market is very important for the stakeholders to make their decision. To analyze the long term diffusion of electric vehicles, after analyzing the technical and economical properties of electric and combustion vehicles, a model is developed for this problem by using the innovation and diffusion theory, and biological population competition theory. Then, simulation and theoretical analysis is carried out to show the impact of the carry cost advantage of the electric vehicles over the combustion vehicles on the competition and diffusion trend, and on the final market as well. It is found that the advantage of the carry cost is the key factor that affects if the electric vehicles can replace the combustion vehicles and finally capture the market. The greater the advantage is, the more possibility is for the electric vehicles to capture the market.%具有能源和环境优势的电动汽车正快速进入市场,其在竞争市场中的长期扩散规律是利益相关者制定政策的重要依据.基于创新扩散理论和生物种群竞争理论,结合电动汽车与内燃机汽车各自的技术经济特性,构建了竞争市场中两种汽车相互竞争的长期扩散模型.分别用数值模拟方法和均衡理论分析了电动汽车相对内燃机汽车的持有成本比较优势对竞争扩散趋势和最终市场状态的影响.结果表明:持有成本比较优势的大小是决定电动汽车能否替代内燃机汽车并最终占领市场的关键因素,其优势越大,越有可能较快替代内燃机汽车,并且只要其优势大于它们的市场容量之比,电动汽车将最终占领市场.
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