基于因果贝叶斯网络的风险建模与分析

摘要

为验证基于因果贝叶斯网络的风险建模与分析（CBN-based RMA）的有效性，引入4种常见模式简化该方法的结构建模，以降低随后参数建模中专家判断工作量，然后将该改进方法应用于巴基斯坦NEELUM-JHELUM水电站隧洞掘进工程风险分析中，有效控制了项目施工风险，获得远超预期的盈利。该案例应用结果表明，改进的CBN-based RMA方法具有很强的可操作性，可显著提高工程风险管理效率。%In order to validate the CBN-based RMA method proposed in article[1],four common patterns are first introduced to simplify the structure modeling of the method,which will reduce the effort of experts'judgement in subsequent parameter modeling,and then the improved method is applied in risk analysis of Neelum-Jhelum hydropower station tunneling project in Pakistan. As a result,the contractors control effec-tively the project risks and obtain much more revenue than expected. This case shows that improved CBN-based RMA method has easy operability and will significantly enhance the efficiency of engineering risk management.