The impact of government subsidies on the low carbon products selection under demand fluctuation is studied. Based on Cournot game models with two cases which are monopoly and duopoly, the impact of different production strategies on the output and profit of manufacturers is analyzed, and the conditions that meet the production equilibrium strategy are then proposed. The results show that production strategy is affected by government subsidies, spilling over rate and market preference. Furthermore, government subsidies can motivate the manufacturer to produce low carbon products, and competition will undermine the incentive effect of government subsidies to the production of low carbon products. However, large government subsidies will increase carbon emissions. In addition, the greater the degree of market fluctuation is, the smaller the incentive effect of government subsidies is.%研究了需求波动下政府补贴对制造商生产低碳产品选择的影响.建立垄断和双寡头两种情形下的古诺博弈模型,分析不同生产策略对制造商产量和利润的影响,得出满足各均衡策略的条件.研究发现:制造商生产策略受政府补贴、市场流失率和市场偏好的影响;政府补贴可引导制造商生产低碳产品,但竞争会削弱补贴对生产低碳产品的激励作用;较大的政府补贴反而会增加碳排放;市场波动程度越大,政府补贴对制造商生产低碳产品的激励作用越弱.
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