电力需求快速增长引发的碳排放问题日益严重，中国环境容量能否承载未来电力需求持续高速增长的压力备受关注。不同产业部门电力需求存在直接和间接的经济技术联系，基于东部11个省份2007年投入产出表，测算生产过程中某一部门技术进步引致的经济系统中所有产业部门电力需求的变化幅度，以此判断对电力需求影响较大的制造业部门，并利用投入产出价格模型计算各产业部门生产成本对电力价格增加的敏感度，识别出价格效应显著的各制造业部门。综合技术进步效应与价格效应后，比较各产业部门在电力需求上的节能减排潜力的结果显示：在经济发展水平相似的东部各省份，非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业、通用、专用设备制造业4个产业的技术进步效应、价格效应均能显著抑制电力需求增加，具有较大的节能减排潜力。但实践上通过价格效应实现降低碳排放的目标，还需考虑碳成本转化率、市场结构、替代品替代效应、产品需求弹性等因素的影响。%Carbon emissions caused by the rapid growth of electricity demand are increasing. It has at-tracted widespread attention that whether the environment of China can beer the press from high growth in elec-tricity demand. Taking into account the indirect and direct of economic and technological effects amount differ-ent sectors,this paper uses the input -output model and sensitivity analysis to estimate the changes in the magnitude of the various sectors of electricity demand in the economic system due to technical progress of a sector. Thus we can judge which sectors have a greater impact on the demand for electricity. Then we use the input-output price model to calculate the sensitivity coefficients of the cost of production of industrial sectors because of the rising electricity prices so as to identify the price effect of each manufacturing sector. Finally, this paper integrates the technological advances effect and the price effect to analyse the energy saving potential of various industrial sectors. The results show that:for similar level of economic development in the eastern provinces,there are four industries which can significantly suppress the increase in electricity demand through the raising price and technological innovation,including non metallic mineral products industry,metal smel-ting and rolling processing industry,chemical industry,general and special equipment manufacturing. But a-chieving the goal of reducing carbon emissions through the price effect,also needs to consider the impact of the cost of carbon conversion rate,market structure,the substitution effect of substitutes,product demand elastic-ity and other factors.
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