工业环境污染物影子价格研究——以广东省工业36个分行业为例

摘要

Shadow price estimation of pollutants is the key and difficult point in the design of emission trading market.Combined with the advantages of the current parametric method and nonparametric method,this paper constructs a linear programming model using Shephard output distance function and estimates the shadow price of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) in 36 industrial sectors in Guangdong Province during 1998-2014.The study found that the shadow price of two kinds of pollutants showed significant industry heterogeneity,the shadow price of sectors which have low capital labor ratio was higher than that of high capital labor ratio,with the passage of time,the shadow price of all industrial pollutants appeared increasing trend,the estimated shadow prices of pollutants was significantly higher than the actual price of the emissions trading market.The above conclusions are of great significance to the design and operation of regional emission trading market in Guangdong.%污染物影子价格估算是排污权交易市场设计的关键和难点.结合当前参数化和非参数化方法的优势,利用Shephard产出距离函数构建参数线性规划模型,以广东省工业36个细分行业为例,估算1998-2014年间二氧化硫(SO2)和化学需氧量(COD)的影子价格.污染物影子价格绝对值实际上反映的是污染物的边际减排成本.研究结果表明:两种污染物的影子价格均表现出较强的行业异质性,低资本劳动比行业的污染物影子价格绝对值要高于高资本劳动比行业;而且随着时间的推移,所有工业行业的污染物影子价格绝对值均呈现递增的趋势;估算所得的污染物影子价格绝对值均明显高于排污权交易市场的实际价格.以上结论对区域性排污权交易市场的设计及有效运作有一定的参考价值,尤其对广东有启发意义.