环境规制的治污效应与就业效应:'权衡'还是'双赢'——基于规制内生性视角的分析

摘要

环境规制约束工业污染排放,而同时会对就业水平产生何种影响值得深入探讨.考虑到现有文献大都忽略规制内生性及其对实证结果影响的不足,基于中国2003-2014年36个工业行业数据,构建包括环境规制、就业水平和环境污染三个方程在内的联立方程组,研究环境规制的内生性问题,并评估环境规制的治污效应与就业效应.结果表明:环境规制的实行,起到了减少工业污染排放的效果,但同时也降低了行业就业水平;环境规制受行业就业水平、国有企业比重、外资进入程度、污染排放量等因素影响,具有较强的内生性,忽略内生性问题会导致环境规制的治污效应与就业效应被低估.与清洁型行业相比,环境规制对污染型行业就业的冲击更大.需强调的是,环境规制在工业行业层面难以实现环境改善与就业增长的"双重红利".地方政府会在一定程度上以牺牲环境为代价,放松环境规制保障行业就业水平,导致治污效果大打折扣.由结论延伸出来的政策建议主要体现在失业工人的安置与再就业、环境政策完善与规制工具创新、环境规制独立性建设三个方面.%Environmental regulation is supposed to reduce pollution,meanwhile what the impact will en-vironmental regulation have on the employment is worth exploring.Most literature neglect the endogeneity of regulation and its impact on the empirical results.Based on 36 industrial data during 2003-2014, by con-structing simultaneous equations including environmental regulation, employment level and industrial pollu-tion,this paper investigates the endogeneity of regulation and systematically evaluate the pollution reduction effect and employment effect of environmental regulation.Estimation results show that while improving environ-mental quality,regulation adversely affects employment.as being affected by industry employment,proportion of state-owned firms, foreign investment and pollutions, environmental regulation is endogenous.Ignoring regulation's endogeneity will lead to underestimation of the pollution reduction effect and employment effect of environmental regulation.Compared with the clean industries,the impact of regulation on polluting industries' employment is greater.These results indicate that, environmental regulation is difficult to harvest the double dividend of environmental improvement and employment growth at the industrial sector level,local governments will relax environmental regulation to ensure employment at the cost of the environment, while reducing job losses,lowering regulatory strength will also reduce its pollution reduction effect.Policy recommendations in-clude placement of unemployed workers and their re -employment, relevant environmental policies'improve-ment and regulatory tools'innovation,reconstruction of independent regulation system.