降雨预报信息下高关水库汛限水位动态控制风险分析

摘要

The usability of the rainfall forecasting information in the dynamic control of flood control water level in Gaoguan Reservoir is examined.Then, the risks in such dynamic water level control based on rainfall forecasting infor-mation are analyzed.Results show that the risk in dynamic control of the flood control water level using the rainfall fore-casting information does not increase under the current rainfall forecasting accuracy , while the reservoir benefit is im-proved.%以高关水库为对象,在分析水库降雨预报可利用性的基础上,对"24 h无雨"和"24 h小雨"预报信息下高关水库汛限水位动态控制产生的风险进行了分析.计算结果表明:高关水库在目前预报水平下,利用降雨预报信息开展汛限水位管理工作时不仅没有增加额外的风险,而且增加了水库效益.