2011～2015年湖南省粮食供需状况预测

摘要

Taking Hunan Rural Statistics Yearbook from 2002 to 2011 as main data sources,the supply and demand situations of grain in Hunan province from 2011 to 2015 were forecasted using simple moving average method and single exponential smoothing method.The results showed that the total production amount of grain in Hunan province from 2011 to 2015 will be 28.612 2 million t-29.065 2 million t,and the total demand amount of grain will be 28.980 7 million t-30.979 8 million t,so the gap between supply and demand of grain will be 125 000 t-2.367 6 million t,and the guarantee rate for supply and demand of grain will be 104.36％-113.69％.%以2002～2011年《湖南农村统计年鉴》为主要数据来源,采用简单移动平均法和一次指数平滑法相结合的方法,对2011～2015年湖南省粮食供需状况进行了预测,结果表明:湖南省2011～2015年粮食生产总量为2 861.22万～2 906.52万t,需求总量为2 898.07万～3 097.98万t,供需缺口为12.50万～236.76万t,供给保障率为104.36％～ 113.69％.