改革开放以来,水稻主产区由具有绝对生产优势的南方逐渐向北转移,在东南沿海地区,水稻总产量持续下降,而东北地区的水稻总产量却显著增加. 基于2002—2011年面板数据,实证分析了水稻变迁的内在原因. 结果表明,替代作物收益、有效灌溉面积、人均经营耕地面积对水稻主产区的变迁具有重要影响,水稻产区的北移将加大中国水稻产量的波动性.%Since the reform and opening up, the main rice production areas have gradually shifted from the south with abso-lute producing advantage to the north. Rice production has continued to decline in the southeast coastal areas, while in-creased significantly in the Northeast region. Based on 2002-2011 panel data, empirical analysis on the underlying causes of the changes was carried out. The results showed that the alternative crop income, effective irrigation area and arable land per person had an important influence on the changes of rice main rice production region, and its northward migration increased the yield fluctuation of rice.
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