北京市水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究--基于VAR与SVAR模型分析

摘要

基于1990-2012年北京GDP数据和三次产业用水量数据，进行GDP数据与三次产业用水量的平稳性检验和协整检验，检验通过后，对四组数据构建SVAR模型，利用脉冲响应函数，分析北京GDP与三次产业用水量之间的相互关系，结果显示第一产业用水量、第二产业用水量与北京GDP的增长负相关，第三产业用水量与北京GDP的增长正相关。%Based on the various data(annual data from 1990-2012) that the research required,the GDP,the primary industry water consumption(AW),the secondary industry water consumption(PW),the tertiary industry water consumption(TW),the stationary test and co-integration test were used to analyze the data. Then we constructed the Structural Vector Autoregression model(SVAR) of the GDP , AW , PW , TW . We analyzed the relationships among GDP and AW,PW,TW,with the impulse response function. The results shows that AW and PW are negatively correlated with GDP,and the TW is positively correlated with GDP.