西安市入境旅游发展与经济增长的关系研究

摘要

以1998-2012年统计数据为基础，选取GDP、入境旅游外汇收入两个主要指标，通过相关分析、回归分析、构建回归模型，对西安市入境旅游发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究.结果表明：西安市1998-2012年入境旅游外汇收入对经济增长贡献率平均值达2.0%，且在1998-2002，2003-2007和2008-2012年3个时期内旅游外汇收入与GDP呈显著正相关，对比不同时期的回归模型发现经济增长对入境旅游的依赖性不断增强.最后，就西安市大旅游发展提出强化旅游业的主导产业地位、城景一体化建设、加大城市旅游营销和完善体制机制保障4点建议.%Based on the statistical data from 1998 to 2012,two basic indexes are selected,which are the inbound tourism revenue and GDP. By using correlation analysis,regression analysis,and building regression model,the empirical analysis is carried out,based on the inbound tourism and economic development of Xi’an City. The results indicate that inbound tourism development have big contribution to the economic growth in Xi’an during 1998-2012 and the average contribution rate is 2.0%;and there are three striking correlations periods of 1998-2002,2003-2007 and 2008-2012 between economic growth and inbound tourism;comparing different periods’ regression models we found that the economic growth is dependent on inbound tourism . Finally,four related suggestions including strengthening the dominant position of tourism,city view integration,increasing sales and improving mechanisms for urban travel security system,are given in order to promote the development of tourism and economic growth in Xi’an City.