基于模糊多准则决策法的城市建筑项目风险评估方法研究

摘要

Construction project in urban is high uncertainty and risk. A reasonable risk analysis model is the basis of the risk assessment,which provides a substratum for the engineering design and construction decision making, and avoids the risk existence in the process of construction. We applied the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to assess the degree of impact of risk factors in the urban construction,and used fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to assess the possibility of occurrence of the risk factors. Finally,the urban construction project risk assessment model was established and verified. The applicability of the model provides references for the future risk management of project construction.%城市建设项目具有高度的不确定性和风险性，合理的风险分析模式是风险评估的基础，为工程设计方和施工方决策的制定提供依据，以规避工程施工过程中可能存在的风险。采用模糊层级分析法评估城市建设施工过程中的各项风险因素所造成的影响程度，运用模糊多准则决策法对各项风险因素发生的可能性进行评定。最后，建立城市建设工程主要作业项目风险程度的评估模型，并验证了该模型的适用性，为以后工程建设中的风险管理提供参考依据。