基于模糊综合评价模型的旅游开发项目风险评价——以秦岭竹林关风景区为例

摘要

基于对国内外旅游开发项目风险研究现状和相关理论分析的基础上,对秦岭竹林关风景区旅游开发项目现状进行了分析,根据旅游开发项目的特点,通过组织专家组对秦岭竹林关风景区旅游开发项目进行了风险识别与分析.在此基础上,构建了由5个一级指标和19个二级指标组成的秦岭竹林关风景区旅游开发项目风险评价指标体系.根据从专家处所获取的调查数据,运用模糊综合评价模型对评价指标体系中的各项指标进行了评价.研究结果显示,秦岭竹林关风景区旅游开发项目面临的总体风险为普通风险,属中度风险,但项目一级指标中的所面临的经济风险最大.%Based on the current research situation of tourism development project risk at home and abroad and the relevant theoretical exposition,this paper analyzes the current situation of tourism development project of Qinling Bamboo Forest Scenic Spot.According to the characteristics of tourism development project,the risk assessment index system of the tourism development project of Qinling Bamboo Forest Scenic Spot,which consists of five firstlevel indicators and nineteen second-level indicators,is constructed on the basis of the risk identification and analysis.According to the survey data which is obtained from the expert premises,the fuzzy evaluation model is used to evaluate the indexes in the evaluation index system.The results show that the overall risk of tourism development projects in Qinling Bamboo Forest Scenic Spot is the general risk which is moderate risk,but the economic risk is the biggest in the project level.