巴布亚新几内亚Mw≥7地震时空对称性及趋势判断

摘要

The frequent occurrence of the earthquake disaster has brought a lot of losses to the human,and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to judge the trend accurately.In this paper,the temporal and spatial trends of Mw ≥7 earthquake in Papua New Guinea are predicted by using the method of commensurability,symmetry analysis of butterfly structure diagram,commensurability structure system of earthquake,the space-time migration of epicenter and other aspects.At the same time,we analyzed mechanism of earthquake occurrence by the frequency of sunspot,the lunar tidal force.The results show as follows.1) The signal of Mw ≥7 earthquake occurred in Papua New Guinea in March 2018 and 2019 was the strongest.2) From the migration of warp direction and zonal of epicenter,the migration of next earthquake epicenter have large possibility to the southwest,and its range may be in the south latitude 5.1° north,east longitude 150.9° west.3)The next earthquake in Papua New Guinea is most likely to occur in the 24th cycle decline period of sunspot and within 5 days of the moon.The purpose of this study is to provide some reference for future disaster prevention and mitigation.%地震灾害的频繁发生给人类带来了大量的损失,对其进行准确的趋势判断,具有重大的理论和现实意义.利用自然可公度理论、蝴蝶结构图的对称性分析、地震可公度结构系、震中的时空迁移方向等预测判断该地区Mw≥7地震发生的时间和空间趋势.同时根据太阳黑子发生的周期频率、月球引潮力等分析此地区发生地震的机理.结果表明:1)巴布亚新几内亚2018年和2019年发生MW≥7地震的信号最为强烈.2)从震中经向、纬向迁移的总体来看,下次地震震中向西南方向迁移的可能性较大,并且其范围可能在南纬5.1°以北,东经150.9°以西.3)巴布亚新几内亚下一次地震有极大可能发生在太阳黑子活动的第24周期下降段以及朔望日前后5d之内.此研究旨在为今后的防灾减灾提供一些参考依据.