以陕西省为例,在统计分析2001-2015年人均耕地面积、粮食产量与人口数量现状的基础上,采用灰色系统模型GM(1,1),对土地资源人口承载力进行了预测与分析.结果显示,2001-2015年间陕西省人口数量不断增长的同时人均耕地面积持续下降,土地资源压力增大.经预测,2018-2030年陕西省土地资源人口承载力呈持续超载状态,到2030年陕西省人口数量达4044万人,粮食产量为1.5万t,超载人口数量为714万人.然而,超载人口数量逐年下降,可承载的人口越来越多,土地资源的人口承载能力在不断提升.因此,在今后的社会经济发展过程中仍需要合理地控制人口增长,提高土地生产潜力,缓解因超载人口所带来的土地资源压力.%Based on the statistical analysis of current situation of the per capita arable area,grain yields and number of population from 2001 to 2015 in Shaanxi province,the population supporting capacity of land resource was forecasted and analyzed by the model of GM (1,1).The results showed that the number of population was increasing and the per capita cultivated land was decreasing during 2001-2015.Therefore,it had the great pressure on land resource.Meanwhile,through the model forecasting,the grain yield would reach to 15 thousand tons and the population was 40.44 million people until a well-off society completion in 2030.And the overload population was 7.14 million people.However,the number of overload population was decreasing because the land supporting capacity and the supporting number of population were always increasing.Therefore,it was necessary to control the population growth reasonably,improve the potential of land production and alleviate the pressure of land resources by the overload population in the future social and economic development.
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