为了促进县域生态安全预警研究,并为区域可持续发展管理提供决策依据,基于PSR模型构建了平山县生态安全预警评价指标体系,并基于模糊综合评判方法,结合Excel程序,设计了生态安全预警评价计算模型,利用所构建的指标体系和计算模型,对平山县的生态安全状况进行了预警评价和分析.结果表明,平山县2010年的生态安全预警评价综合指数为4.938,处于预警状态,总体上生态安全状况较好；人口自然增长率、万元GDP能耗、人均水资源占有量、耕地粮食单产、第三产业占GDP比重、教育支出占GDP的比重、农村劳动力受教育程度等是制约平山县可持续发展的重要因素.%In order to promote the study on county early-warning of ecological security,provide a basis for decision making for regional sustainable development management, in this paper, based on the PSR model, eco-security assessment indicator system of Pingshan County for early-warning was brought forward; based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, combined with EXCEL procedures, ecological security calculation model for early-warning was set up. And then, using the index system and the calculation model, the ecological security of Pingshan County was evaluated and analyzed for early warning. The results showed that the ecological security index for early warning of Pingshan County in 2010 was 4. 938, which was on the state of pre-warning, the overall situation of ecological security was good. The natural population growth rate, GDP energy consumption per 10 000 Yuan,water resources per capita, grain yields per unit farmland, tertiary industry's share of GDP, the proportion of education expenditure to GDP, rural labor education were the main factors restricting the Pingshan sustainable development.
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