基于 Monte－Carlo法的某病险水库坝后坡稳定可靠度分析

摘要

Monte -Carlo simulations was conducted to evaluate dam slope of reliability .Randomness of the cohesive force internal, friction angle were mainly takes into consideration .The theory can evaluate dam slope stability quantitatively .The corresponding slope reliability under three reservoir characteristic stages were computed and the run risk was evaluated .The results show that dam slope failure probability is higher under the check flood level , the slope urge to be treated .%以某病险水库为研究对象，应用Monte－Carlo法进行坝坡稳定可靠度分析，主要考虑了粘聚力、内摩擦角的随机性影响，可定量地评价坝坡稳定的可靠度。对各特征水位工况进行模拟，得到相应的坝坡可靠度值，进行了运行调度风险分析评价。结果表明，校核洪水位工况下坝坡的破坏概率较高，需进行治理。