基于模糊役龄回退的电力设备弹性检修决策优化模型

摘要

基于电力设备的检修维护工作是影响设备性能和供电可靠性的关键，也是影响电力系统稳定性和企业经济效益重要因素的问题，结合役龄回退理论和模糊理论构建电力设备检修的故障率预测模型，量化检修工作对可靠性因素的不确定影响效果。综合考虑可靠性与经济性，以设备全寿命周期中检修成本与故障成本之和最小为目标，对传统的检修模型进行修正和优化，建立了弹性周期定期检修模型和弹性状态检修决策优化模型，对检修决策进行优化提高理论保证。%Overhaul and maintenance on power equipments is key to influence equipment performance and power supply relia-bility,as well as an important factor of affecting power system stability and enterprise economic effect. Fault ratio predic-tion model for power equipment maintenance is constructed by combining age reduction theory and fuzzy theory to quantify uncertain influencing effect on reliability factors by maintenance work. Comprehensively considering reliability and econo-my,minimum sum of maintenance cost and fault cost in life cycle of equipments is taken as the target to modify and opti-mizetraditional overhaul and maintenance model. Meanwhile,flexible cycle preventive maintenance model and flexible condition-based maintenance decision-making optimization model are both established for optimizing maintenance decision-making.