为定量分析SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌流域径流模拟的适用性，以叶尔羌河卡群水文站以上集水区域为研究流域，基于卡群水文站2000-2012年水文数据，运用SWAT模型模拟了研究流域的径流量，并设定2种气候变化情景模式，定量分析不同气候变化情景模式对叶尔羌流域径流量的影响。研究结果表明：SWAT模型在叶尔羌河流域具有较好的适用性，模拟的径流深相对误差小于8%，确定性系数均达到0.75以上；在降水不变化的前提下，气温升高2℃，流域径流量增加6.28%；在气温不变前提下，降水量增加5%，流域径流量增加9.50%。研究成果对于新疆叶尔羌河流域水文模拟及预测提供参考价值。%SWAT model was used for quantitative analysis of the applicability in the Xinjiang Yeerqiang watershed The ar-ea above the Kaqung hydrological station was selected as the case area,based on the 2000 -2012 hydrological data of the Kaqung station,SWAT model was used for runoff simulation in the Yeerqiang watershed,and the effects of different climate change scenarios for runoff was quantitative analyzed in the Yarkand River. The results show that:SWAT model has better ap-plicability in the Yeerqiang River,the simulated runoff relative error is less than 8%,and the uncertainty factor reached more than 0. 75;under the premise of not changing rainfall,temperatures 2 ℃,the reduction of runoff was 4. 59%;At the same premise temperatures,precipitation increased by 5%,runoff was increased by 6. 32%. The research can provide a reference value to Hydrological simulation in the Yeerqiang watershed.
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