基于延迟期权和扩张期权的矿业投资决策研究

摘要

矿业项目投资回收期长,不确定因素多,传统评价方法在评价策略性选择权时完全不考虑投资过程中实际存在的不确定性,造成短视决策.文中首先介绍了实物期权的概念、主要类型及定价方法；其次建立了基于延迟期权和扩张期权的矿业投资决策模型；最后以江西省某钼矿投资项目为例进行应用.结果表明:所建立的模型比较全面地反映了矿业投资项目的总体价值,为矿业投资决策提供了一种较好的思路与方法.%Mining projects have long payback period and much uncertainty. For traditional evaluation method, the uncertainty in evaluating strategic options is riot taken into account, resulting in short-sighted decision -makings. First, the concept of real options, the main types and pricing methods are introduced in the paper; then, a mining investment decision-making model based on the delay options and the expansion options is established; finally, the model is interpreted with the case of a molybdenum mine in Jiangxi Province. The results indicate that the models reflect the overall value of the mining investment projects, and provide better ideas and methods for mining investment decisions.