武汉市人口增长与空间分布格局演变

摘要

为揭示城镇化背景下武汉市人口时序增长趋势和人口空间分布格局演变特征,本文基于1990年第四次、2000年第五次、2010年第六次全国人口普查和2014年武汉市人口普查数据,运用统计学原理和GIS空间分析方法,分析了武汉市人口增长的时空变化规律;应用人口密度空间分布的数学模型,得到武汉市人口空间分布格局的演变趋势.人口增长研究表明:1990年以后,武汉市人口数量迅速增长,总体上形成了中心聚集、外围扩散的空间发展格局.空间分布研究表明:1)武汉市的人口密度分布更加符合Clark模型,主城区Smeed模型拟合效果更好.近25年来,武汉市城镇化进程迅速,人口向主城区聚集.随着时间发展,主城区逐步呈现初级阶段的郊区化.2)武汉市主城区人口空间分布已经出现多中心化的趋势,并且已经有两个街道发育成为人口次中心.研究结果可为武汉市人口相关决策的制定和城市结构调整提供参考依据,有助于认识我国中部崛起城市的发展规律,为其他城市的发展和规划提供参考和借鉴.%To reveal the chronologically increasing trends and evolution characteristics of spatial distribution pattern of population in Wuhan under the background of urbanization,and on basis of the national census data from 1990 (4th edition),2000 (Sth edition),2010(6th edition),and the data from Wuhan in 2014,the methodologies of statistics and spatial analysis were exploited in the study to analyze the temporal and spatial variation rules of population;The development trends of spatial distribution pattern were obtained in application of the mathematical model of spatial distribution of population,via mono-centric and poly-centric model fitting of the population density in each period,.The growth indicates that overall,a center-aggregated and periphery-scattered spatial development trend was formed owing to the dramatically increased population after 1990.Study on spatial distribution elucidates that:1) According to the fitting result of mono-centric model,the distribution of population density in Wuhan was more in line with the model of Clark,while the downtown areas fitted in better with the model of Smeed.In nearly 25 years,the urbanization process of Wuhan had got promoted promptly,which was attributed to the gathering of residents to the downtown.As time went on,the downtown gradually stepped into the initial stage of suburbanization.2) In accordance with the fitting result of poly-centric model,the poly-centric spatial distribution of downtown emerged,furthermore,two streets had already been the sub-centers of population.Certainly the results can provide references to the policy-making of population and adjustments of the urban structure for Wuhan,and make for a better understanding of the development rules of the central China,and simultaneously offer references and experience for the development and planning of other cities.