基于时间序列模型的沉降监测预报分析

摘要

时间序列模型预测具有可靠性与高效性的特点.本文结合沉降监测工程,采用Matlab进行建模预报分析,分别基于预测模型(AR、MA、ARMA)进行应用.对比自回归模型、滑动平均模型及自回归滑动平均模型预测结果的精度,表明3种模型可预测期连续分布,模型组合可提高预测精度.%The time series forecasting model has high reliability and great efficiency.Combined with the settlement monitoring project,using Matlab for modeling and forecasting analysis,respectively based on the prediction model (AR,MA,ARMA) for application.The accuracy of the model is compared with the results of the auto regressive model,the moving average model and the autoregressive moving average model.The results show that the three models predictable period continuous distribution,dancedforcastingprecision based on model combination.