郯庐断裂带周边地震活动图像及未来大震危险性分析

摘要

In this paper, the authors described the seismic gap image before the 1668 Tancheng earthquake and the seismic gap image of modern East China, and found that they are very similar in that they are both around the Tanlu faulted zone, exhibit oval shape and have nearly NS-trending long axis. They occupy an area of about 39 × 104km2 covering Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, An⁃hui, Shanghai and the Yellow Sea. They are similar to each other in range, shape, area and formation time of the seismic empty re⁃gion. In addition, since 2010, earthquake precursory anomaly has appeared in East China, which is located near the Tanlu faulted zone. The great earthquake risk probability along southern Tanlu zone is increasing, which is worthy of attention.%对比1668年郯城8.5级地震前的地震围空区图像和现代华东地区地震围空区图像，发现二者很相似，都是环绕郯庐断裂带周围呈椭圆形，长轴走向近南北，面积约39×104km2。涵盖河北、河南、山东、江苏、安徽、上海、黄海地区。空区范围、形态、面积、形成时间近似。另外，自2010年以来华东地区地震前兆台网出现大范围异常，集中在郯庐断裂带附近。因此，郯庐带南段的大震危险概率可能正在增大，需引起进一步关注。