Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

摘要

Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand,water deficits,and their future uncertainty in Beijing—a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem.A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations.Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing.The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06×10^(8)m^(3)in 2008 and 2.77×10^(8)m^(3)in 2015,though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31×10^(8)m^(3)to 4.84×10^(8)m^(3)during this period of time.Results from simulated scenario illustrated that,due to the extreme water scarcity situation,industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.