2009年以来中国蔬菜价格上涨分析

摘要

The price rise in vegetables has been taking on the characteristics of leader position, wide extent and structural differentiation since 2009. Price rise is mainly determined by the currency spillover effect, increase of cost and overweighted circulation layer. In addition, to some extent, natural disasters and hot motley speculation amplify the trend of price rise. From the perspective of long-term, changes of supply and demand in vegetables will provide the driving and force for price rise, and the trend of capitalization in vegetables will result in the existence of frequent fluctuation for vegetables＇ price. To establish the long-effect mechanism for maintaining the stability of vegetables price, policy designer should consider the following recommendations： improving the system of vegetable production risk management, innovating control measures of vegetables market risk, and strengthening the early warning and monitoring system of vegetables.%2009年以来中国蔬菜价格上涨呈现出领涨、涨幅大、结构分化的新特点。货币的溢出效应、生产成本的提高以及流通环节的层层加码是此轮蔬菜价格上涨的主要原因;此外,自然灾害和游资炒作也在一定程度上放大了价格上涨的趋势。从长期来看,中国蔬菜供求关系变化所产生蔬菜价格上涨的推力和拉力将始终存在,而蔬菜资本化趋势则导致蔬菜价格频繁波动或成常态。为构建中国蔬菜生产和价格稳定的长效机制,建议政府完善蔬菜生产风险管理体系、创新蔬菜市场风险调控手段以及强化蔬菜预警监测体系建设。