基于BN-LOPA方法的重油催化工艺火灾爆炸风险分析

摘要

为有效预防和控制重油催化工艺火灾爆炸事故,针对其火灾爆炸风险分析提出基于事故树的贝叶斯网络-保护层分析方法(BN-LOPA).以提升管反应器为例,绘制提升管反应器火灾爆炸事故树,并将其转化为贝叶斯网络.利用贝叶斯网络所具有的逆向推理计算能力,找出最易导致事故发生的薄弱环节,分别为分馏塔冲塔和反应压力上升.对这些节点设置独立保护层后,可以有效降低火灾爆炸事故发生的风险等级.结果表明,火灾爆炸风险等级在受控范围不需要增加安全措施,可以实现重油催化工艺安全生产.%In order to effectively prevent and control the fire and explosion accident of heavy oil fluidized catalytic cracking unit,against the risks of fire and explosion method of Bayesian net work layer of protection analysis (BN-LOPA) based on fault tree analysis was put forward.With the riser reactor as an example,the riser reactor fire and explosion accident fault tree was drawn out and turned into Bayesian network.Reverse calculation of Bayesian networks was done,and found the fractionator washing tower and pressure rise being easy to lead to accident.After the independent protective layer for the points being set,fire explosion accident risk level can effectively be reduced.Results showed that fire and explosion risk was under tolerance,and extra safety measures were not required to achieve safety in production.