The evolution of oil tank fire explosion was analyzed based on the system dynamics method,which decomposes the com-plex stock flow diagram,and establishes the differential equation of different fire explosion accidents.Cumulating amount of fire ex-plosion and the attenuation ability of emergency decision were cal-culated quantitatively by basic on flow rate modeling.The analysis results indicated that the evolution of oil tank fire explosion can be divided into the beginning,development,expansion and extinction stages mainly,and it evolves into internal tank fire,internal dike fire,external dike fire,boiling overflow steam cloud explosion and boiling liquid explosion accident from 23 paths.%引入系统动力学的方法分析油罐火灾爆炸事故的演化过程,对复杂的存量流量图进行分解,建立不同类型火灾爆炸事故的微分方程.利用流率基本入树建模法定量计算火灾爆炸的累积量和应急决策的衰减能力.通过分析,油罐火灾爆炸主要演化为开始、发展、扩大和消亡阶段,从23条路径演化成罐内池火灾、堤内池火灾、堤外池火灾、沸溢性火灾蒸气云爆炸和沸腾液体扩展为蒸气云爆炸事故.
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