基于大面积网格法的商场疏散时间预测

摘要

为了准确预测商场人员疏散时间,文中结合群集流动规律及离散法建立新的大面积网格算法,将时间离散为微小单元Δt,空间离散为大面积网格,利用人员流动速度-密度公式,计算每一Δt时间内网格中人员流动速度,迭代累计各单元时间得到疏散时间.以某商场人员疏散演练为例进行分析,结果表明,大面积网格算法预测的人员疏散时间与实际疏散演习时间基本吻合,其相对误差为3.4%,预测精确度较高.%In order to accurately predict the mall evacuation time,in this paper,a new large-scale grid method was established based on the cluster flow law and discrete method.The method distracts the time into units Δt and divides the space into large-scale grids.By using mobility rate-density formula,the grid mobility speed in Δt time is calculated.Thus,the evacuation time is obtained by using iterative method with cumulation of the time of all units.By taking a mall evacuation drills for example,the results showed that the time of evacuation drills predicted by the large-scale grid model agrees well with actual evacuation time,with relative error of 3.4%.