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用数字证明:从周文斌案的概率分析说起

     

摘要

The application of mathematics in judicial proof will have two very different trends: on one hand, there will be more and more statistical-probability evidence based on the empirical statistical data, which likes DNA evidence expressing their probative value through Likelihood Ratio. On the other hand, fact-ifnding cannot be achieved by mathematical reasoning alone, with the reasons as follows: the process of fact-ifnding is so complex that it cannot be simulated by mathematical reasoning; mathematical reasoning is not the “native language” of judicial proof but a“foreign language”, which needs to be translated for understanding; with respect to fact-ifnding, quantitative operations in mathematical reasoning sometimes would blur, confuse or even hide the difference in quality.%数学在司法证明中的应用将有两个截然不同的走向:一方面,司法鉴定领域会不断涌现像DNA证据一样的统计概率证据,越来越多的科学证据将借助似然率的形式表征其证明力;另一方面,整合多项证据进行事实认定只能由人来完成,事实认定的人工智能化不可能实现。后者原因有事实认定过程复杂,数学推理难以模拟;数学推理并非司法证明思维的“母语”,而是一门需要翻译的“外语”;在数学推理中,“量”上的运算会模糊、混淆乃至掩盖“质”上的差别。

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