基于改进GM(1,1)模型的导弹备件消耗预测

摘要

针对导弹备件消耗受多种因素综合影响不易精确表达的问题,提出选用灰色系统理论进行导弹备件消耗预测.备件保障实践证明,导弹备件消耗与装备固有可靠性、战备任务、环境条件等因素密切相关,在GM(1,1)模型基础上,结合导弹备件保障工作实际,建立了加入影响因子的改进GM(1,1)模型.结果表明,该模型考虑了影响备件消耗的主要因素,具有更高的预测精度和重要的实用价值.%Missile spare parts consumption is synthetically affected by multi-factors and not easily be expressed precisely. The thought of forecasting missile spare parts consumption with grey system theory was put forward to solve the problem. The practice of spare parts support proved that missile spare parts consumption is correlated with equipment intrinsic reliability, combat mission and environmental condition; so amendatory GM(1, 1) model with influencing factors was established. The results proved the model is referring to main influencing factors of missile spare parts consumption, has better forecast precision, and has important application value.