基于MATLAB灰色GM（1,1）模型的大气污染物浓度预测

摘要

灰色GM（1,1）预测模型是灰色理论中的重要组成部分,也是主要的预测方法之一,因此,GM（1,1）模型的应用范围很广泛。以乌鲁木齐市市区的大气环境监测数据资料为依据,在分析灰色预测模型基本原理的基础上,利用MATLAB强大的矩阵功能,实现灰色GM（1,1）模型算法。通过灰色系统GM（1,1）模型,对乌鲁木齐市未来4年的环境空气质量进行了预测分析。预测结果显示,乌鲁木齐市未来4年环境空气质量将持续好转,表明近年来乌鲁木齐市采取的产业结构调整和清洁能源战略实施卓有成效。机动车尾气已经逐渐成为目前和未来一段时间内乌鲁木齐市空气污染的主要因素之一,控制和减少车辆尾气对空气的污染不容忽视,为今后乌鲁木齐市制定大气环境规划、防治大气污染控制提供了科学依据。%As an important part of grey theory as well as one of the main forecasting models,GM（1,1） has been applied to many fields.Based on the atmosphere monitoring data of urban districts in Urumqi,this article presents the algorithm to accomplish gray forecasting GM（1,1） model by using the MATLAB＇s strong matrix function.The ambient air quality in next four years in Urumqi is predicted and analyzed by grey system GM（1,1） model.The results indicate that the ambient air quality in Urumqi will be better in the coming five years,which shows that it is effective to adjust industrial structure and carry out clean energy strategy.At present and in the future,vehicle exhaust will be one of the main factors of air pollution in Urumqi City,therefore,it is of prime importance to control and reduce vehicle exhaust pollution.This paper provides scientific reference for compiling prevention and control regulations of atmospheric environmental pollution.