多收入阶层CGE模型在能源资源税改革效应分析中的应用研究

摘要

开展能源资源税改革效应分析,是评估环境政策改革在环境效益、经济效率和公平效应上是否实现共赢目标的基础工作.通过细分社会核算矩阵中的居民收入组账户,构建面向多收入阶层的CGE模型,有利于量化环境税费领域改革产生的效应.经模拟测算得到,中国能源资源税改革将对GDP、部门总产出和社会总消费等主要宏观经济指标带来负面影响,但均在可接受范围内.微观层面上,居民收入组内的可支配收入和消费支出则受到不同程度的负面影响.%The analysis on energy resource tax reform effect is the foundational work to test whether environmental policy re-form can realize the win-win goal in environment benefit, economic efficiency and equality effect.By segregating the residents' accounts to construct the micro SAM matrix, the multi-income groups CGE model has been constructed to obtain the quantitative effects by environmental tax and fee reform.The results of CGE modeling show that:for the impacts on macro-economic perform-ance, resource tax reform will lead to the decreasing of China's GDP, gross industrial output and total society consumption, but all of the decreases are within acceptable degrees respectively; for the influence on micro-economic level, both of income and ex-penditure will drop with different degrees for all resident groups.