基于博弈论视角的美国页岩气开发环境政策分析及启示研究

摘要

Driven by horizontal drilling hydraulic fracturing, the United States has achieved a large scale development on shale gas and energy independent.However, the loopholes of environment governance in the course of shale gas development has been the main obstacle to progress of shale gas industry.Given the above situation, this study tried to establish a tripartite game model of government,shale gas production enterprises and inhabitants,to find a balanced solution and discuss the impact of various factors on thedecision-making between the three mainparticipants.According to the experiences of the United States and actual situation of China, it is advised that propelling the development of shale gas cautiously;paying attention to the environment evaluation on shale gas development;encouraging the technology innovation of shale gas development;building an effective mechanism for environment governance.%受水平井技术及水力压裂技术的推动,美国实现了页岩气的规模开发和能源独立.而环境监管漏洞却成为制约美国页岩气产业发展的主要障碍.在此背景下,运用博弈论原理,构建了政府、页岩气开发商、居民三方博弈模型,给出了该模型均衡条件下的解,讨论了影响三方主体决策的主要因素.基于美国的经验,结合中国页岩气开发的实际,提出谨慎推进页岩气开发、注重页岩开发的环境评估、鼓励页岩气开发技术的创新、加强环境监管等建议.