沈阳市畜禽养殖环境承载力分析及预测

摘要

In this paper, Shenyang city was taken as an example. The carrying capacity of livestock-breeding environment under the conditions of the natural state and the treatment of some fecal matter was analyzed and forecasted by application of the grey prediction model in a systematic analysis method. The results showed that the grey prediction model could be applied into the research prediction, decision-making and control of the carrying capacity of livestock-breeding environment with much higher precision. Then, the carrying capacity of livestock-breeding environment at district-level and municipal-level in Shenyang was analyzed and predicted and relevant local carrying capacity was calculated out, providing reference for more scientific spatial layout design of livestock-breeding. According to the results, the treatment rate of animal excrement was improved; the ecological pressure was effectively reduced; and age limit of the carrying capacity of livestock-breeding environment reaching to the security line was postponed.%运用系统分析方法中灰色预测模型,对沈阳市自然状态下和处理部分粪污情况下的畜禽养殖环境承载能力进行了分析和预测.计算结果表明,应用灰色预测模型对畜禽养殖环境承载力进行分析,精确度较高.对沈阳市各区(县)、市畜禽养殖环境承载力进行了分析预测,依据计算得出的相应地区畜禽养殖环境承载力结果,能够更加科学地为畜禽养殖空间布局提供参考.同时分析得出,提高畜禽粪污处理率,可以有效的延缓畜禽养殖业给环境带来的生态压力,推迟畜禽养殖环境承载力达到警戒值的年限.