经济新常态下中国中长期能源展望

摘要

In this study, scenario analysis was made on the total and structure of 13th FYP and mid-long term energy demand in China by using the bottom-up energy demand forecast model system� The results show that: the GDP growth rate of China in 13th YP and 2021-2030 period is“tilt down” L-type� The energy consumption will be 48�5~49�6 billion tce in 2020 and 54�3~58�2 million tce in 2030� From the point of the structure, the energy consumption in the third industry and resident sector will become the main driving force� In the transformation scenario, it can successfully achieve long-term carbon intensity reduction targets and non-fossil energy accounting targets through promoting energy-saving priority strategy in consumption side and developing non-fossil energy in energy supply side.%本文利用自底向上的能源需求预测模型体系，对新常态下的中国中长期能源需求总量及结构开展情景分析。结果显示：“十三五”及2021～2030年期间，我国经济增速总体呈“倾角向下”的L型特征；能源需求增速逐步放缓，预计2020年和2030年需求总量分别为48�5～49�6亿、54�3～58�2亿吨标煤；能源消费结构持续优化，第三产业和居民部门成为拉动能源增长的主要动力；在转型情景下，通过消费侧推进节能优先战略，供给侧大力发展非化石能源，能够顺利实现“十三五”及中长期非化石能源发展目标和碳强度下降目标。