基于多级模糊综合评价法的房地产企业财务预警研究

摘要

With constantly changing domestic situation and publication of the state＇ s relevant real estate policies, uncertainty factors facing real estate enterprises have constantly increased, and financial risks have daily increased. Financial risk of real estate enterprises has been affected by financial factors and nonfinancial factors and it has fuzziness and complexity. Forecasting model on base of financial variables can＇t fully forecast financial risk. In order to improve validity of forecasting model, this paper selects nonfinancial indicators based on real estate enterprises and builds forecasting model of multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.%随着国内经济形势的不断变化和国家房地产相关政策的出台,房地产企业在经营中各种不确定因素不断增加,财务风险也与日俱增。房地产企业的财务风险具有模糊性和复杂性,它受到财务和非财务等多种因素的影响。以财务指标为变量建立的预警模型无法全面预测企业的财务风险。为提高财务预警系统的有效性,本文以房地产企业这一微观群体为视角,在以财务指标为主体的财务预警系统基础上,结合房地产企业的特征选取非财务指标,对影响房地产企业财务预警的非财务指标进行分层研究,运用多级模糊综合评价法构建房地产企业的财务预警模型。这将对房地产企业构建财务预警体系大有裨益。