国际期铜价格波动对中国经济的影响是多层次的,除对铜产业发展的干扰、资源安全的威胁之外,最直接的表现是对物价水平指数的冲击. 本文以 2006 年 1 月到 2017 年 12 月的居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)、 LME3 月场内铜收盘价数据为对象, 建立 VAR 模型, 并通过脉冲响应和方差分解来判断国际期铜价格变动对中国 CPI、PPI 等物价指数的影响及其影响程度的差别. 实证结果表明:LME 铜价波动对中国 CPI、PPI 存在显著影响,且对 PPI 的时间持续更长、影响更大. 由此提出了加速期货市场的双向开放以提升中国铜期货定价能力、优化铜期货定价机制以平抑国内物价、建立铜资源战略储备体系以保障国家铜资源安全等对策与建议.%The impact of the international copper futures price fluctuations on China's economy is mutilevel. In addition to the interference to the development of copper industry and the threat to the resource security, the most direct performance is the impact on the price level index. Based on the data of consumer price index (CPI) from January 2006 to December 2017, and the price index of industrial products (PPIP/LME3), this paper establishes a VAR model and uses the pulse response and variance decomposition to judge the influence of international copper futures price change on China's CPI and PPI price indexes and the difference of the influence degrees. The empirical results show that the LME copper price volatility has a significant impact on the CPI and PPI in China, and the duration of PPI is longer and the impact is greater. Therefore, it proposes some countermeasures and suggestions of accelerating the two-way opening of the futures market in order to enhance the pricing ability of Chinese copper futures, perfecting the pricing mechanism of domestic copper futures to stabilize domestic prices, and establishing a strategic reserve system of copper resources in order to ensure the security of national copper resources.
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